The Flood Category System
Welcome to our community-driven Flood Forecasting System. Developed by volunteers, this tool is dedicated to enhancing our understanding of potential coastal floods. While not perfect, it represents a sincere effort to use available data to predict high tide events that could impact our shores.
The Details Behind the Reports
Our forecasting system combines a variety of data sources, analyzed through an AI model, to provide insights into potential flooding:
- Historical Weather Data: We delve into past weather patterns to uncover their impact on tides.
- Historical King Tide Data: Studying past King Tides helps us anticipate future tidal trends.
- Weather Forecast Data: Current weather forecasts offer crucial insights into upcoming conditions.
- Tide Prediction Data: Relying on NOAA’s tides and currents data, we track the latest tide predictions.
- CO-OPS High Tide Flooding Likelihoods: NOAA’s predictions for high tide flooding events for each day of the year. Collected each time the report is generated.
- Monthly Sea Level Anomaly Projections: Our system also uses NOAA’s monthly sea level anomalies to project future mean sea levels statistically. This method helps us understand how the sea level is likely to vary from the norm, providing a broader perspective on potential sea level changes. Ideal for long-term planning, it complements our near-term flood predictions, which focus on the likelihood of flooding in the coming days.
- Weekly Mean Non-Tidal Residual Analysis: We look at the difference between actual water levels and predicted tides over the past week. This helps us better understand and predict unexpected changes in water levels that aren’t due to tides alone, making our flood forecasts more reliable for the forecasted days.
- ECMWF Ensemble: Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble, we match up high tides with barometric pressure readings, helping us see how the forecasted weather and sea conditions compare to the big flood in December 2022. This cool tech lets us spot flood risks by checking if current conditions are lining up with what happened during that historic tide event.
AI-Powered, Twice-Daily Flood Predictions
Twice each day, our AI model processes the latest data we’ve collected to assess flood risks from Category 1 (the lowest) to Category 7 (the highest). This categorization helps us gauge the potential for significant flood events, similar to the Category 5 tide surge witnessed in Redondo Beach, WA, in December 2022. Keep in mind that as a volunteer-led initiative using varying data from NOAA and weather services, the system’s predictions may change between runs, reflecting the latest available information.
Stay Alert with Our Twice-Daily Updates
Subscribe to our alerts and receive a three-day flood category forecast delivered directly to you, typically twice each day – once in the morning and again in the evening. These regular updates are designed to be a helpful tool for anticipating potential high-tide events. We’re excited to announce that our reporting format has been updated to closely align with the NOAA alert system format, providing you with more streamlined and actionable information.
It’s important to note, however, that there may be occasions when we miss a scheduled update due to data unavailability from our providers. We are actively working with our providers to address this issue, but we want our subscribers to be aware of this potential limitation.
Our primary goal with these alerts is to add an additional resource for our community to stay informed, prepared, and safe. We appreciate your understanding and patience as we strive to continue to work with our providers to enhance the reliability of our service.
Visual Guide to Our Process
Supporting Our Efforts: Donations Welcome
While our Flood Forecasting System is a labor of love and community service, running it does come with its costs. If you find this service valuable and would like to contribute to its maintenance and development, we warmly welcome your support. Donations are entirely optional but greatly appreciated. Every bit helps us improve and sustain this important tool for our community. Feel free to click the Donate button below to make a contribution. Thank you for considering supporting our efforts to keep our community informed and safe.
Our Flood Forecasting System is a testament to the power of community collaboration and technology in addressing the challenges of coastal living. We extend our heartfelt thanks to the various NOAA scientists who have generously offered their expertise and guided us to the right data sources for our needs. Together, we’re striving to stay one step ahead of the tides, ensuring our community is well-equipped to face the future.