CATEGORY 2
WHAT
Expect routine conditions today with moderately high tide levels. The flood model remains in the lower range, indicating no immediate threat despite slightly elevated water.
WHEN
Peak tides around the early morning (near 4:24 AM) and late afternoon/early evening (around 6:12 PM).
IMPACTS
• No impact anticipated.
REASONING
Tide was the dominant factor (0.332), with a small additional push from pressure (0.019). Though one of the closest analog days (2025-01-06) reached Cat 3, today’s official classification remains Cat 2.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT
We are near the threshold for minor flooding, driven mostly by regular high tides and somewhat lower pressure. While conditions are not severe, it’s worth a bit of caution along immediate shoreline areas.
WHEN
Main high-tide peaks in the early morning (around 5:00 AM) and again in the evening (near 7:06 PM).
IMPACTS
• Minor inundation possible at the immediate shoreline.
REASONING
Rising tide levels (0.367) are the main contributor, assisted by a moderate dip in pressure (0.061). This setup is similar to the 2023-12-27 Cat 3 event. Ensemble modeling agrees on Category 3.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT
Another day with slightly elevated tides, placing us close to flood conditions but still in a generally minor range. No major storms or intense wind are expected, limiting the potential for higher impacts.
WHEN
Higher water levels expected around 5:36 AM and again near 8:06 PM at peak tides.
IMPACTS
• Minor inundation possible at the immediate shoreline.
REASONING
Tide once again leads (0.367), with moderate pressure influence (0.056). Overall, conditions align with typical Category 3 scenarios as seen on past dates like 2023-12-27. Ensemble guidance consistently places this day at Cat 3.
CATEGORY KEY
• Cat 1–2: No flooding risk (routine conditions)
• Cat 3: Near or minor flood conditions, monitor the shore
• Cat 4: Flooding likely, moderate property impact possible
• Cat 5: Flooding likely with significant property damage
• Cat 6–7: Extreme flooding risk