Category 3 · ELEVATED FLOOD RISK

Flood Watch

Redondo Beach, WA

Day 1: 2026-06-17

CATEGORY 3

WHAT Category 3 conditions are expected, primarily driven by moderately high tides. Slightly lower pressure than normal provides some additional support, while wind influence is minimal.

WHEN Peak risk in the early morning around 6:06 AM and again in the evening near 8:54 PM.

IMPACTS • Minor inundation possible at immediate shoreline.

REASONING The tide was the main contributor to approaching flood conditions, with modest assistance from below-normal pressure; onshore wind contributed very little. All ensemble members agree on Category 3 for this day, so there is no higher-end tail scenario.

Day 2: 2026-06-18

CATEGORY 3

WHAT Category 3 conditions persist, chiefly because of continued higher tides. Slightly below average barometric pressure also adds to the risk, and wind is negligible or even slightly reducing onshore influence.

WHEN Highest water levels near 7:06 AM and again around 9:36 PM.

IMPACTS • Minor inundation possible at immediate shoreline.

REASONING High tide remains the primary factor, with somewhat reduced pressure giving a small boost to water levels. Winds are light and have little to no net onshore component. Ensemble forecasts unanimously place this day in Category 3.

Day 3: 2026-06-19

CATEGORY 3

WHAT Category 3 conditions continue, mainly due to ongoing moderate tides combined with below-normal pressure. Winds remain minimal and do not significantly affect water levels.

WHEN Peak risk in the morning near 8:12 AM and in the late evening around 10:18 PM.

IMPACTS • Minor inundation possible at immediate shoreline.

REASONING Tidal height and modestly low pressure are the chief drivers. Wind contributions remain small. This scenario is similar to the 2023-12-27 Category 3 event. Ensemble guidance is uniform at Category 3, indicating no higher tail risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

CATEGORY KEY

Forecast detail

72-hour tide forecast at Tacoma (NOAA), local time. Dashed line is the Category 3 threshold.
14 ft 12 ft 10 ft TodayThuFri Cat 3 · 13 ft 13.7 ft13.7 ft13.6 ft

Weather panel — Day 1

CentralEnsemble p10–p90
Pressure1017.8 hPa1016.2–1017.5
Wind6 mph NW3–6
Surge (forecast)0.40 ft
NOAA HTF likelihood0%

Onshore component: 0.5 mph. Pressure values are MSL; wind is the 10-meter forecast. Ensemble spread is the 10th–90th percentile across five weather models (GFS, ECMWF, ICON, GEM, UKMO).

Closest past event

Friday, December 20, 2024 Category 1
Tide
13.4 ft
Pressure
1016.4 hPa
Wind
13 mph E

Selected from the nearest-neighbor search across every logged flood event · 93% similar.