Category 3 · ELEVATED FLOOD RISK

Flood Watch

Redondo Beach, WA

Day 1: 2026-07-14

CATEGORY 2

WHAT
Category 2 conditions are expected, primarily driven by a moderately high astronomical tide. Pressure is near normal, and wind contributions are minimal, leaving no significant flood threat.

WHEN
Peak water levels will occur in the evening around 7:06 PM.

IMPACTS
• No impact anticipated.

REASONING
The moderate tide was the main factor elevating conditions, with near-normal pressure and negligible onshore wind. All ensemble members agree on Category 2, so there is no higher-end tail risk.

Day 2: 2026-07-15

CATEGORY 3

WHAT
Conditions are close to flood thresholds, driven mostly by a moderately high tide with slight additional contribution from somewhat lower-than-normal pressure. Wind remains minimal, so the main watchpoint is the high tide.

WHEN
Peak risk near early morning (around 5:06 AM) and again in the evening around 7:42 PM.

IMPACTS
• Minor inundation possible at immediate shoreline.

REASONING
The tide is the primary driver, with modest pressure support contributing to a Category 3 rating. Onshore wind is minimal. Ensemble models unanimously indicate Category 3.

Day 3: 2026-07-16

CATEGORY 3

WHAT
Another day close to flood conditions, mostly due to a slightly higher tide and modestly below-normal pressure. Light onshore wind may contribute a bit but is not a major concern.

WHEN
Greatest risk near 8:18 PM during the evening high tide.

IMPACTS
• Minor inundation possible at immediate shoreline.

REASONING
High astronomical tide and mildly low pressure are the key factors, while wind remains modest. This event is similar to the 2026-01-05 Cat 3 event. All ensemble members concur on Category 3.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

CATEGORY KEY

Forecast detail

72-hour tide forecast at Tacoma (NOAA), local time. Dashed line is the Category 3 threshold.
14 ft 12 ft 10 ft TodayWedThu Cat 3 · 13 ft 13.8 ft

Weather panel — Day 1

CentralEnsemble p10–p90
Pressure1018.6 hPa1016.2–1017.4
Wind6 mph NW4–6
Surge (forecast)0.30 ft
NOAA HTF likelihood0%

Onshore component: 0.2 mph. Pressure values are MSL; wind is the 10-meter forecast. Ensemble spread is the 10th–90th percentile across five weather models (GFS, ECMWF, ICON, GEM, UKMO).

Closest past event

Friday, December 20, 2024 Category 1
Tide
13.4 ft
Pressure
1016.4 hPa
Wind
13 mph E

Selected from the nearest-neighbor search across every logged flood event · 96% similar.