Category 2 · NO FLOODING EXPECTED

Flood Watch

Redondo Beach, WA

Day 1: 2026-09-26

CATEGORY 2

WHAT
A Category 2 day with no flood risk expected. The main driver is a moderately high tide, with only a slight influence from above-normal pressure and negligible wind contribution.

WHEN
Peak high tides are around 5:12 AM and 5:30 PM.

IMPACTS
- No impact anticipated.

REASONING
Tide is the main factor elevating water levels, while pressure provides only a small upward push. Winds are minimal, so they do not contribute much to the overall risk. Ensemble modeling shows unanimous agreement at Category 2.

Day 2: 2026-09-27

CATEGORY 2

WHAT
Another Category 2 day, again showing no flood risk. A moderately high tide is the primary factor, but below-normal pressure only contributes slightly, and wind remains minor.

WHEN
Peak high tides near 6:00 AM and 5:54 PM.

IMPACTS
- No impact anticipated.

REASONING
The classifier is dominated by the tide height, with a modest effect from slightly lower pressure. Onshore wind is weak and reduces overall surge impact. All ensemble models also agree on Category 2.

Day 3: 2026-09-28

CATEGORY 2

WHAT
A Category 2 day with no expected flooding. As before, the primary influence is a moderately high tide. Pressure is slightly lower than average, and wind remains light.

WHEN
Peak high tides occur around 6:48 AM and 6:18 PM.

IMPACTS
- No impact anticipated.

REASONING
Tidal elevation is the key contributor, aided a bit by somewhat below-normal pressure. Wind effects are minimal. Notably, a past analog from 2026-02-01 recorded a Category 3 event despite similar conditions, but the ensemble currently places confidence in Category 2 for this date.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

CATEGORY KEY

Forecast detail

72-hour tide forecast at Tacoma (NOAA), local time. Dashed line is the Category 3 threshold.
14 ft 12 ft 10 ft TodaySunMon Cat 3 · 13 ft 12.9 ft

Weather panel — Day 1

CentralEnsemble p10–p90
Pressure1022.2 hPa1020.0–1020.4
Wind2 mph WSW9–9
Surge (forecast)0.30 ft—
NOAA HTF likelihood0%—

Onshore component: 1.7 mph. Pressure values are MSL; wind is the 10-meter forecast. Ensemble spread is the 10th–90th percentile across five weather models (GFS, ECMWF, ICON, GEM, UKMO).

Closest past event

Saturday, January 31, 2026 Scored Category 2
Tide
13.3 ft
Pressure
1022.6 hPa
Wind
7 mph SSW

Observed that day: no flooding reported (no corroborating evidence found in the audit log).

Selected from the nearest-neighbor search across every logged flood event · 99% similar.