Category 2 · NO FLOODING EXPECTED

Flood Watch

Redondo Beach, WA

Day 1: 2026-09-27

Category 2

WHAT A Category 2 forecast indicates no flooding risk today. The slightly elevated tide is the primary contributor, with near-to-above-normal pressure helping keep conditions benign. Onshore wind is minimal.

WHEN Expect the highest water levels near 6:00 AM and again around 5:54 PM.

IMPACTS • No impact anticipated.

REASONING Tide was the biggest factor, while the relatively normal-to-high barometric pressure moderated the risk. The onshore wind was light and did not add to water levels. All ensemble members agree on Category 2, so there is no higher-tail scenario.

Day 2: 2026-09-28

Category 2

WHAT Again, Category 2 means no flooding risk. Conditions are similar to the previous day, with a modestly elevated tide but otherwise normal weather influences.

WHEN Peak tide levels around 6:48 AM and again near 6:18 PM.

IMPACTS • No impact anticipated.

REASONING The tide is the main contributing factor, supported to a small degree by slightly below-normal pressure; wind remains minimal. The ensemble is unanimous at Category 2. One of the more similar historical dates (2026-02-01) was a Cat 3, but present conditions are not expected to reach that level.

Day 3: 2026-09-29

Category 2

WHAT Category 2 continues with no flooding risk. Tides are moderately high, but below typical flood thresholds, and pressure is not significantly low.

WHEN Highest water stands around 7:42 AM and 6:48 PM.

IMPACTS • No impact anticipated.

REASONING The tides contribute most of the signal, with slightly lower-than-usual pressure adding a small boost and moderate onshore wind offering a slight additional factor. The ensemble does not show any higher tail scenario, so Category 2 is firm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

CATEGORY KEY

Forecast detail

72-hour tide forecast at Tacoma (NOAA), local time. Dashed line is the Category 3 threshold.
14 ft 12 ft 10 ft TodayMonTue Cat 3 · 13 ft 12.1 ft12.6 ft12.9 ft12.9 ft

Weather panel — Day 1

CentralEnsemble p10–p90
Pressure1018.0 hPa1015.1–1015.6
Wind8 mph NNE6–7
Surge (forecast)0.30 ft—
NOAA HTF likelihood0%—

No significant onshore component. Pressure values are MSL; wind is the 10-meter forecast. Ensemble spread is the 10th–90th percentile across five weather models (GFS, ECMWF, ICON, GEM, UKMO).

Closest past event

Friday, December 20, 2024 Scored Category 2
Tide
13.4 ft
Pressure
1016.4 hPa
Wind
13 mph E

Observed that day: no flooding reported (no corroborating evidence found in the audit log).

Selected from the nearest-neighbor search across every logged flood event · 97% similar.