Category 1 · NO FLOODING EXPECTED

Flood Watch

Redondo Beach, WA

Day 1: 2026-10-16

CATEGORY 1

WHAT
No flooding risk is expected on this day, as conditions remain routine. The main factor is the moderate high tide, with near-normal atmospheric pressure and minimal onshore wind.

WHEN
Peak tides around 10:30 AM and 8:24 PM.

IMPACTS
• No impact anticipated.

REASONING
Tide was the primary contributor, but still at a level well below any flooding concern. Atmospheric pressure is near normal, and wind plays almost no role. All ensemble models agree on Category 1 with no higher tail risk. This is similar to the 2025-01-10 Cat 1 event.

Day 2: 2026-10-17

CATEGORY 1

WHAT
No flooding risk is expected, with moderately high tide and slightly lower but still near-normal pressure. Onshore wind is present but not strong enough to raise concern.

WHEN
Peak tides around 11:36 AM and 9:24 PM.

IMPACTS
• No impact anticipated.

REASONING
Tide remains the main factor; pressure is only slightly lower than typical, and wind contribution to water levels is minimal. All ensemble models concur at Category 1 with no higher tail risk. This is similar to the 2026-03-13 Cat 1 event.

Day 3: 2026-10-18

CATEGORY 1

WHAT
No flooding risk is expected due to moderate tide levels, near-normal pressure, and minimal wind effect. Offshore wind components actually reduce any potential water rise.

WHEN
Peak tides near 12:42 PM and 10:48 PM.

IMPACTS
• No impact anticipated.

REASONING
Although the tide is a factor, it is not high enough to cause concern. Pressure remains relatively stable, and the wind component is small enough to lower any potential wave action. Model agreement is unanimous at Category 1, with no greater tail scenario. Similar conditions occurred on 2026-02-12 (Cat 1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

CATEGORY KEY

Forecast detail

72-hour tide forecast at Tacoma (NOAA), local time. Dashed line is the Category 3 threshold.
14 ft 12 ft 10 ft TodaySatSun Cat 3 · 13 ft

Weather panel — Day 1

CentralEnsemble p10–p90
Pressure1023.4 hPa1021.9–1022.7
Wind2 mph SSE0–2
Surge (forecast)0.00 ft—
NOAA HTF likelihood0%—

Onshore component: 1.2 mph. Pressure values are MSL; wind is the 10-meter forecast. Ensemble spread is the 10th–90th percentile across five weather models (GFS, ECMWF, ICON, GEM, UKMO).

Closest past event

Friday, January 10, 2025 Scored Category 1
Tide
11.8 ft
Pressure
1023.2 hPa
Wind
14 mph SSW

Observed that day: no flooding reported (no corroborating evidence found in the audit log).

Selected from the nearest-neighbor search across every logged flood event · 99% similar.