Redondo Beach, WA
CATEGORY 4
WHAT... The provided data indicates high tide levels significantly lower than the historical Category 5 event from 12/27/2022, with a maximum tide of around 20.48 feet versus the historical event's 22.297 feet. However, barometric pressures are substantially higher than the Category 5 event's threshold of 978.4 hPa, with pressures over 1030 hPa corresponding to high tides on this day. This suggests a lower likelihood of flooding due to atmospheric conditions despite high tides.
WHEN... Although high tides are present, the significantly higher barometric pressure reduces the risk of flooding compared to historical Category 5 events. However, given the NOAA's Flood Likelihood Analysis indicating a high likelihood of flooding, vigilance is recommended.
The NOAA's Flood Likelihood of 5.6% is relatively low, and the distance to the flood threshold is -0.235m, suggesting that although the water level is elevated, it is not expected to surpass critical thresholds. The combination of high pressure and lower high tide levels compared to historical Category 5 events leads to a Category 4 rating for this day.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT... Similar to Day 1, high tide levels are below the Category 5 historical event benchmark and barometric pressures remain elevated above the critical threshold for major flooding events. The mean pressure MSL is over 1025 hPa during high tides, which works against the likelihood of flooding.
WHEN... The flood likelihood is slightly higher at 8.4% as per NOAA's data, with a closer distance to flood threshold at -0.203m compared to Day 1. This suggests a slight increase in flood risk, but still within a moderate range due to favorable atmospheric pressure conditions.
Considering the consistent elevation of atmospheric pressure and comparing it with both weather observations from Boeing Field for December and previous years' data, there seems to be a moderate risk which justifies a Category 3 rating for potential flooding.
CATEGORY 2
WHAT... The trend of lower high tide levels and elevated barometric pressures continues into Day 3, with pressures steady at around 1028 hPa during predicted high tides and no significant change in tide levels from the previous day. The NOAA's Flood Likelihood Analysis identifies an even higher likelihood percent of flooding at 8.8%, yet historical comparisons suggest a mitigated risk.
WHEN... The flood risk remains moderate to low due to consistent atmospheric conditions that are not conducive to severe flooding events like those witnessed in Category 5 events historically.
Despite NOAA's slightly increased likelihood percentage for flooding on Day 3, the maintained higher barometric pressure readings and comparative analysis with past events warrant a Category 2 rating for this day.
Residents and businesses should continue to monitor forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings from local authorities. While current data analysis indicates moderate to low risk of significant flooding over the next three days, conditions can change rapidly. It is important for those living in areas susceptible to flooding to be prepared to take immediate action should conditions worsen or actual flooding occur.