Flood Watch

Redondo Beach, WA

Day 1: 2024-09-03

CATEGORY 2

WHAT Minor coastal flooding expected. Possible inundation of up to 1 foot above ground level near shorelines and low-lying areas.

*WHEN From 04:00 AM to 06:00 AM PST and from 05:00 PM to 07:00 PM PST.

IMPACTS Minor flooding of low-lying areas, parks, and roads. Isolated road closures possible.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

The high tide at 04:24 AM on 2024-09-03 is expected to reach a height of approximately 17.605 feet with a barometric pressure of 1004.44 hPa. The high tide at 05:36 PM on the same day is expected to reach a height of approximately 18.887 feet with a barometric pressure of 1002.01 hPa. These conditions are similar to the Category 3 event on 12/27/2023 but with slightly higher barometric pressure, reducing the likelihood of severe flooding. Wind speeds are relatively low, further mitigating the risk.

Day 2: 2024-09-04

CATEGORY 2

WHAT Minor coastal flooding expected. Possible inundation of up to 1 foot above ground level near shorelines and low-lying areas.

WHEN From 05:00 AM to 07:00 AM PST and from 05:00 PM to 07:00 PM PST.

IMPACTS Minor flooding of low-lying areas, parks, and roads. Isolated road closures possible.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

The high tide at 05:06 AM on 2024-09-04 is expected to reach a height of approximately 17.593 feet with a barometric pressure of 1001.06 hPa. The high tide at 05:54 PM on the same day is expected to reach a height of approximately 18.868 feet with a barometric pressure of 1010.33 hPa. These conditions are similar to the Category 3 event on 12/27/2023 but with higher barometric pressure, reducing the likelihood of severe flooding. Wind speeds are relatively low, further mitigating the risk.

Day 3: 2024-09-05

CATEGORY 2

WHAT Minor coastal flooding expected. Possible inundation of up to 1 foot above ground level near shorelines and low-lying areas.

WHEN From 05:00 AM to 07:00 AM PST and from 05:00 PM to 07:00 PM PST.

IMPACTS Minor flooding of low-lying areas, parks, and roads. Isolated road closures possible.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

The high tide at 05:48 AM on 2024-09-05 is expected to reach a height of approximately 17.555 feet with a barometric pressure of 1008.60 hPa. The high tide at 06:12 PM on the same day is expected to reach a height of approximately 18.823 feet with a barometric pressure of 1008.60 hPa. These conditions are similar to the Category 3 event on 12/27/2023 but with higher barometric pressure, reducing the likelihood of severe flooding. Wind speeds are relatively low, further mitigating the risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.


Forecast Reasoning:

Step-by-Step Analysis:

  1. Assess Barometric Pressure:
  2. For all three days, the barometric pressures are significantly higher than in previous severe flood events (e.g., Category 5 event on 12/27/2022 with pressure <=978.4 hPa). This suggests less severe weather conditions and a lower likelihood of extreme flooding events.

  3. Evaluate Tide Height:

  4. The tide heights for all three days range between approximately ~17.5 feet and ~18.9 feet, which are lower than the Category 4 and Category 5 events in our historical data but higher than the Category 1 event.

  5. Consider Wind Direction and Speed:

  6. Wind speeds are relatively low (ranging from ~3 mph to ~8 mph) compared to historical severe flood events (e.g., Category 4 event on11/15/2021 with wind speed >23 mph). This indicates a lesser impact on potential flooding.

  7. Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood:

  8. NOAA's forecast indicates a low likelihood of flooding for all three days (0% likelihood). This further supports the assessment that severe flooding is unlikely.

  9. Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category:

  10. Given the high barometric pressures, significant but not extreme tide heights, low wind speeds, and NOAA's low flooding likelihood score, the forecast for these conditions is categorized as Category 2 flood events for all three days.

This analysis prioritizes safety while providing an informed assessment based on available data points and historical comparisons.