Redondo Beach, WA
CATEGORY 3
WHAT: Minor coastal flooding possible. Tide levels are approaching thresholds that have historically led to minor flooding in low-lying coastal areas.
WHEN: From 12:00 AM to 3:00 AM PST and 2:00 PM to 4:00 PM PST on October 14th.
IMPACTS: Minor flooding of low-lying areas, parks, and roads may occur. Isolated road closures possible.
Step 1: Assess Barometric Pressure - At the first high tide at 1:18 AM, the barometric pressure is relatively low at 1001.26 hPa, similar to pressures observed in historical Category 4 events. - The pressure must be paired with a tide level over 21 ft to significantly increase flood risk. In this case, the tide height is below that threshold.
Step 2: Evaluate Tide Height - Tide height at 1:18 AM is 16.858 ft, comparable to the historical Category 3 event (17.460 ft). - The second high tide at 2:36 PM reaches a higher tide height of 19.384 ft, exceeding the historical Category 3 event but with a higher barometric pressure of 1015.91 hPa.
Step 3: Consider Wind Direction and Speed - Wind speeds are low, ranging from 5 to 10 mph, with wind directions predominantly from the south. - This wind profile is less extreme than in higher-category historical events.
Step 4: Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood - NOAA's flood likelihood for October 14th is low at 0.0%, indicating minimal risk.
Step 5: Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category - The combination of moderately high tide levels and low barometric pressure during the early morning high tide suggests a minor risk. - Given that the tide levels do not exceed 21 ft, significant flooding is unlikely.
Conclusion: Based on these factors, the flood potential for October 14th is categorized as Category 3.
CATEGORY 2
WHAT: No flooding expected. Coastal conditions are normal with no significant weather events anticipated.
WHEN: N/A
IMPACTS: No impacts expected.
Step 1: Assess Barometric Pressure - Barometric pressure during both high tides is high, at 1023.04 hPa and 1024.72 hPa, indicating stable weather conditions.
Step 2: Evaluate Tide Height - Maximum tide height is 19.728 ft at 3:00 PM, below thresholds associated with historical flooding events.
Step 3: Consider Wind Direction and Speed - Wind speeds are minimal, averaging 2 to 5 mph, with wind directions from the north and southeast. - Wind impact on tidal levels is negligible.
Step 4: Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood - NOAA's flood likelihood remains low at 0.0%, supporting the minimal risk assessment.
Step 5: Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category - High barometric pressure and moderate tide heights with minimal wind impact result in a low flood potential.
Conclusion: Based on these factors, the flood potential for October 15th is categorized as Category 2.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT: Minor coastal flooding possible. Tide levels are nearing thresholds associated with minor flooding in low-lying coastal areas.
WHEN: From 2:00 PM to 4:00 PM PST on October 16th.
IMPACTS: Minor flooding of low-lying areas, parks, and roads may occur. Isolated road closures possible.
Step 1: Assess Barometric Pressure - Barometric pressure is stable at 1017.09 hPa during the high tide at 3:30 PM, indicating no severe weather conditions.
Step 2: Evaluate Tide Height - Tide height is expected to reach 20.004 ft, higher than the historical Category 3 event but still below the 21 ft threshold.
Step 3: Consider Wind Direction and Speed - Wind speeds are moderate, up to 9 mph, with wind directions from the south. - This is not expected to significantly influence tidal effects.
Step 4: Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood - NOAA forecasts a low flood likelihood of 0.1%, slightly higher than previous days but still minimal.
Step 5: Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category - The increased tide height approaches levels of concern, but the stable barometric pressure and moderate winds suggest only minor flooding potential.
Conclusion: Based on these factors, the flood potential for October 16th is categorized as Category 3.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.