Redondo Beach, WA
CATEGORY 3
WHAT
Minor coastal flooding possible. High tides reaching up to 20.141 ft may cause minor inundation in low-lying areas near shorelines.
WHEN
From 3:00 PM to 5:00 PM PST on October 16, 2024.
IMPACTS
- Minor flooding of low-lying areas, parks, and roads.
- Isolated road closures possible.
On October 16, 2024, the predicted high tide is expected to peak at 20.141 ft around 4:00 PM, which is higher than the tide height during the historical Category 3 event on December 27, 2023 that recorded a tide of 17.460 ft. However, the barometric pressure is forecasted to be 1024.0 hPa, significantly higher than the lower pressures observed in past flooding events (e.g., 1006.1 hPa during the 2023 event). High barometric pressure typically indicates stable weather conditions, reducing the risk of severe flooding despite the high tides.
Wind conditions are expected to be mild, with speeds around 4-7 km/h (2-4 mph) coming from the NW to NNW. This wind direction and speed are unlikely to contribute to additional flooding risks. NOAA's Flood Likelihood is rated as Low, with a likelihood percent of 0.1% and a significant distance below the flood threshold.
Comparing these conditions with historical data suggests that while the tide height is notable, the overall flood risk remains moderate due to the high barometric pressure and benign wind conditions. Therefore, the event is categorized as Category 3, indicating that it's close to a flood event and worth monitoring but unlikely to cause significant flood damage.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT
Minor coastal flooding possible with high tides reaching up to 20.141 ft, potentially impacting low-lying coastal areas.
WHEN
From 3:30 PM to 5:30 PM PST on October 17, 2024.
IMPACTS
- Minor flooding in low-lying zones and coastal roadways.
- Possible brief closures of vulnerable roads.
For October 17, 2024, the high tide is anticipated to peak at 20.141 ft around 4:00 PM, similar to the previous day. The barometric pressure is expected to be slightly lower at 1018.41 hPa but still considerably higher than pressures associated with severe historical flooding events (e.g., 1002 hPa during the Category 4 event on November 15, 2021).
Wind speeds are forecasted to be gentle, around 6 km/h (4 mph), coming from the NNE to E directions. These mild wind conditions do not suggest an increased flood risk. NOAA's Flood Likelihood remains Low, with a likelihood percent of 0.4%.
While the tide heights are significant, the combination of high barometric pressure and low wind speeds indicates a moderate flood risk. Drawing parallels with historical data, the conditions align with a Category 3 event. This category signifies that while the situation is close to a flood event and should be monitored, it is unlikely to cause substantial flood damage.
CATEGORY 2
WHAT
No significant flooding expected. High tides may reach up to 20.071 ft but are not anticipated to cause flooding issues.
WHEN
From 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM PST on October 18, 2024.
IMPACTS
- No impactful flooding expected.
- Routine conditions for coastal and low-lying areas.
On October 18, 2024, high tide levels are forecasted to peak at 20.071 ft around 4:30 PM. The barometric pressure is predicted to be 1027.16 hPa, the highest among the three days, indicating very stable atmospheric conditions. This high pressure greatly reduces the potential for flooding despite the relatively high tide levels.
Wind conditions are expected to be slightly stronger than previous days, with speeds around 10 km/h (6 mph) from the SSW to S. These conditions are still mild and not conducive to exacerbating flood risks. NOAA's Flood Likelihood is Low, with a likelihood percent of 0.1%.
Given these factors, and in comparison with historical events, the flood risk is minimal. The high barometric pressure and moderate wind conditions contribute to categorizing this day as a Category 2, which indicates no substantial risk of flooding. Residents can expect normal conditions without significant concerns for flood-related impacts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Note: This analysis is based solely on the provided data, including tidal predictions, barometric pressure forecasts, wind conditions, and NOAA's flood likelihood assessments. It does not account for other factors such as hydrodynamic data or ground saturation levels. For comprehensive flood preparedness, always consult local authorities and stay updated with official weather advisories.