Redondo Beach, WA
CATEGORY 3
WHAT Minor coastal flooding is possible. Tide levels are expected to reach up to 19.025 feet around 1:18 PM PST, which is higher than previous Category 3 events. Close monitoring is advised.
WHEN From 12:00 PM to 2:00 PM PST on November 26, 2024.
IMPACTS Minor flooding of low-lying areas, such as beaches and shorelines. Roads adjacent to the coast could experience minor water coverage. No significant property damage is expected.
Forecast Reasoning:
Step 1: Assess Barometric Pressure The barometric pressure at the time of high tide is 1003.10 hPa. This is lower than during the historical Category 3 event (1006.1 hPa) but not as low as in Category 4 and 5 events, which were below 1002 hPa. The pressure is not low enough alone to indicate severe flooding risk.
Step 2: Evaluate Tide Height The tide height is forecasted to be 19.025 ft, higher than the historical Category 3 event (17.460 ft) but below the critical 21 ft threshold associated with more severe flooding in past Category 4 and 5 events.
Step 3: Consider Wind Direction and Speed Wind speeds are low at approximately 4 km/h (3 mph) from the North. This is significantly less than the wind speeds observed in higher-category events (over 16 mph), indicating a lower risk of wind-driven surge.
Step 4: Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood NOAA's forecast indicates a low flood likelihood with a 0.0% chance of flooding and a substantial distance below the flood threshold (-2.18m). This supports a lower flood risk assessment.
Step 5: Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category Given the moderate barometric pressure, higher tide height, low wind speeds, and NOAA's low flood likelihood, the conditions align with a Category 3 event. This suggests that while flooding is close to possible and worth monitoring, it is unlikely to cause damage.
CATEGORY 2
WHAT No significant flooding expected. Tides will be moderately high, but conditions do not indicate a flood risk.
WHEN Peak tide levels around 1:42 PM PST on November 27, 2024.
IMPACTS No expected impacts. Normal conditions for the area.
Forecast Reasoning:
Step 1: Assess Barometric Pressure The barometric pressure is 1003.73 hPa at the time of high tide, slightly higher than Day 1 and well above the low-pressure thresholds associated with significant flooding events.
Step 2: Evaluate Tide Height The tide height is expected to reach 18.922 ft, slightly lower than Day 1 and below the levels observed in historical flood events.
Step 3: Consider Wind Direction and Speed Winds remain light and variable, averaging around 3-5 km/h (2-3 mph) from the South. Such low wind speeds are unlikely to contribute to flooding.
Step 4: Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood NOAA reports a low flood likelihood with a 0.0% chance and a distance to threshold of -2.27m, indicating no significant risk.
Step 5: Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category Considering the higher barometric pressure, slightly lower tide height, minimal wind impact, and NOAA's low flood likelihood, Day 2 is categorized as Category 2, representing no risk of flooding.
CATEGORY 1
WHAT No risk of flooding. Tides and weather conditions are normal for this time of year.
WHEN Throughout the day on November 28, 2024.
IMPACTS No impacts expected.
Forecast Reasoning:
Step 1: Assess Barometric Pressure The barometric pressure is high at 1008.09 hPa during the high tide at 4:06 AM, suggesting stable and calm weather conditions.
Step 2: Evaluate Tide Height The maximum tide height is 17.914 ft, which is lower than the previous two days and significantly below historical flood-related tide levels.
Step 3: Consider Wind Direction and Speed Wind speeds remain low, around 2-4 km/h (1-2 mph), with directions varying slightly but predominantly from the South. Such conditions do not increase flood risk.
Step 4: Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood NOAA indicates a low flood likelihood with a 0.0% chance and a distance to threshold of -2.37m, reinforcing the minimal risk assessment.
Step 5: Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category The combination of high barometric pressure, lower tide heights, minimal wind influence, and NOAA's low flood likelihood places Day 3 firmly in Category 1, indicating no risk of flooding.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.