Redondo Beach, WA
CATEGORY 4
WHAT: Minor coastal flooding expected. Possible inundation of up to 1 foot above ground level near shorelines and low-lying areas.
WHEN: From early morning to late evening on December 18, 2024.
IMPACTS: Minor flooding of low-lying areas, parks, and roads. Isolated road closures possible.
Step 1: Assess Barometric Pressure - The barometric pressure is 1034.51 hPa at the time of the high tide (17:54), which is significantly higher than pressures observed during past severe flood events (e.g., 1016.1 hPa during the historical Category 4 event on 12/18/2024). - High barometric pressure suggests stable atmospheric conditions, reducing the likelihood of severe weather-related flooding.
Step 2: Evaluate Tide Height - The tide is expected to reach 20.586 Ft at 07:54, matching the historical tide height of the Category 4 event. - High tides over 16 Ft increase the risk of coastal flooding, especially if combined with low barometric pressure.
Step 3: Consider Wind Direction and Speed - Wind speeds are moderate, ranging from 5 to 21 km/h (3 to 13 mph). - Wind directions are predominantly from the SSW to SSE (152° to 209°). - These wind conditions are less extreme than those during past Category 4 events, which had higher wind speeds and directions that contributed more significantly to flooding.
Step 4: Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood - NOAA forecasts a High Flood Likelihood with a 10.0% chance on December 18. - This likelihood is equivalent to the historical Category 4 event, indicating a similar risk level for minor flooding.
Step 5: Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category - Despite the high barometric pressure mitigating some flood risk, the combination of a significant tide height and NOAA's high flood likelihood suggests that flooding is likely but will not cause major property damage. - Therefore, the flood category for December 18, 2024, is assessed as Category 4.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT: Tide levels approaching flood thresholds. Monitoring advised, but significant flood damage is unlikely.
WHEN: Around the morning high tide at 08:36 on December 19, 2024.
IMPACTS: Minimal flooding of very low-lying areas is possible. No major disruptions expected.
Step 1: Assess Barometric Pressure - The barometric pressure is 1028.68 hPa at the time of the morning high tide. - This pressure is higher than during historical flood events, indicating stable conditions and a lower risk of severe flooding.
Step 2: Evaluate Tide Height - Tide heights are slightly lower than on Day 1, not reaching the levels observed in historical Category 4 events. - The maximum tide does not surpass critical thresholds that have led to past flooding.
Step 3: Consider Wind Direction and Speed - Wind speeds are light to moderate, with speeds between 3 to 10 km/h (2 to 6 mph). - Wind directions vary but generally do not align with those that have exacerbated flooding in the past.
Step 4: Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood - NOAA forecasts a Low Flood Likelihood with a 3.5% chance on December 19. - This lower likelihood further reduces concerns for significant flooding.
Step 5: Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category - Given the high barometric pressure, moderate tide heights, and low NOAA flood likelihood, the conditions warrant increased awareness but are unlikely to cause flood damage. - Therefore, the flood category for December 19, 2024, is assessed as Category 3.
CATEGORY 2
WHAT: No significant flooding expected. Conditions are within normal ranges.
WHEN: Throughout the day on December 20, 2024.
IMPACTS: No flooding impacts anticipated.
Step 1: Assess Barometric Pressure - The barometric pressure remains high at 1026.83 hPa during the high tide at 09:12. - Stable atmospheric conditions further reduce any flood risk.
Step 2: Evaluate Tide Height - Tide heights are decreasing compared to previous days and do not approach levels associated with historical flooding events. - Maximum tides are well below critical thresholds.
Step 3: Consider Wind Direction and Speed - Wind speeds are minimal, ranging from 1 to 9 km/h (1 to 5 mph). - Wind directions are variable but not from directions known to increase flood risk.
Step 4: Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood - NOAA forecasts a Low Flood Likelihood with a 1.4% chance on December 20. - This very low likelihood indicates that flooding is not expected.
Step 5: Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category - Considering all factors—high barometric pressure, lower tide heights, minimal wind influence, and low NOAA flood likelihood—the conditions do not pose a flood threat. - Therefore, the flood category for December 20, 2024, is assessed as Category 2.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.