Redondo Beach, WA
CATEGORY 2
WHAT
No risk of flooding expected. Normal tidal conditions with no anticipated impact on coastal areas.
WHEN
Throughout December 29, 2024.
IMPACTS
No impacts expected. Coastal areas will experience normal conditions.
Forecast Reasoning:
Step 1: Assess Barometric Pressure: The barometric pressure during the high tides on December 29 is approximately 1015.45 hPa and 1015.73 hPa. This is significantly higher than the low-pressure readings associated with historical flooding events, indicating stable atmospheric conditions.
Step 2: Evaluate Tide Height: The maximum tide height is about 19.7 feet at 5:24 AM, which is below the 21-foot threshold that significantly increases flood risk when combined with low barometric pressure. Compared to historical events, this tide height is lower than the Category 4 and 5 events and slightly higher than the Category 3 event, but the high pressure reduces the risk.
Step 3: Consider Wind Direction and Speed: Wind speeds are moderate, around 8 mph, with wind directions not associated with increased flood risk. Historical flooding events had higher wind speeds and specific wind directions that contributed to flooding, which are not present in this case.
Step 4: Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood: NOAA's forecast indicates a low flood likelihood for December 29, with a likelihood percent of 0.1% and a distance to the flood threshold of -1.52 meters. This suggests a very low probability of flooding.
Step 5: Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category: Given the high barometric pressure, moderate tide heights below critical thresholds, and NOAA's low flood likelihood, the flood potential is categorized as Category 2 for December 29, indicating no risk of flooding.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT
Conditions are close to a flood event and worth monitoring, but flooding is unlikely to cause damage.
WHEN
Highest risk period around the morning high tide on December 30, from 5:30 AM to 7:00 AM PST.
IMPACTS
Minimal impacts expected. Coastal areas should monitor conditions, but significant flooding is not anticipated.
Forecast Reasoning:
Step 1: Assess Barometric Pressure: The barometric pressure during the high tides on December 30 is approximately 1016.10 hPa and 1019.61 hPa. These readings are higher than those associated with historical flooding events, indicating stable atmospheric conditions.
Step 2: Evaluate Tide Height: The maximum tide height reaches approximately 20.24 feet at 6:30 AM, which is approaching the levels seen in historical Category 3 events but still below the critical 21-foot threshold. This height warrants monitoring but does not alone indicate a high flood risk.
Step 3: Consider Wind Direction and Speed: Wind speeds are low to moderate, ranging from 3 to 10 mph, with wind directions not historically linked to increased flood risk. No significant wind events are expected to exacerbate tidal conditions.
Step 4: Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood: NOAA's flood likelihood is low for December 30, with a likelihood percent of 1.1% and a distance to the flood threshold of -1.12 meters. This suggests a low probability of flooding, though slightly higher than the previous day.
Step 5: Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category: Considering the higher tide heights approaching historical Category 3 levels, but with high barometric pressure and low NOAA flood likelihood, the flood potential for December 30 is categorized as Category 3. Conditions are close to a flood event and worth monitoring, but flooding is unlikely to cause damage.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT
Conditions are close to a flood event and worth monitoring, but flooding is unlikely to cause damage.
WHEN
Highest risk period around the morning high tide on December 31, from 5:30 AM to 7:00 AM PST.
IMPACTS
Minimal impacts expected. Coastal areas should remain vigilant, but significant flooding is not anticipated.
Forecast Reasoning:
Step 1: Assess Barometric Pressure: The barometric pressure during the high tides on December 31 is approximately 1015.42 hPa and 1015.55 hPa. These values are higher than those during historical flooding events, indicating stable weather conditions.
Step 2: Evaluate Tide Height: The maximum tide height is again around 20.24 feet at 6:24 AM, similar to Day 2. This is approaching but still below the 21-foot threshold for increased flood risk when combined with low pressure.
Step 3: Consider Wind Direction and Speed: Wind speeds remain low to moderate, with no significant wind events forecasted. Wind directions are not associated with increased flooding risk.
Step 4: Integrate NOAA High Tide Flooding Likelihood: NOAA's flood likelihood for December 31 is low but the highest among the three days, with a likelihood percent of 2.0% and a distance to the flood threshold of -0.99 meters. While slightly higher, it still indicates a low probability of flooding.
Step 5: Synthesize Information and Forecast Flood Category: Given the consistent high barometric pressure, tide heights similar to Day 2, and a slightly increased but still low NOAA flood likelihood, the flood potential for December 31 remains at Category 3. Conditions are close to a flood event and worth monitoring, but flooding is unlikely to cause damage.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.