Redondo Beach, WA
CATEGORY 3
WHAT Minor coastal flooding possible. Expected tide heights may lead to brief inundation of low-lying areas along the shoreline.
WHEN From 7:00 AM to 9:00 AM PST.
IMPACTS Minor flooding of low-lying areas, waterfront paths, and docks. Minimal disruptions expected with isolated instances of water encroachment on coastal roads.
Barometric Pressure: The barometric pressure is high at 1023.92 hPa, significantly higher than pressures observed during historical severe flood events (e.g., the Category 5 event on 12/27/2022 had a pressure of 978.4 hPa). This high pressure indicates stable atmospheric conditions, reducing the likelihood of severe weather-induced flooding.
Tide Height: The expected high tide reaches up to 20.712 ft at 8:30 AM, which is comparable to the tide heights during historical Category 3 events (e.g., 17.460 ft on 12/27/2023) and approaching those of Category 4 events. High tide heights over 16 ft increase the potential for coastal flooding.
Wind: Wind speeds are low, around 3-4 mph from the SE to SSE directions. This is considerably lower than wind speeds during historical higher-category events (e.g., 21 mph during the Category 4 event on 12/18/2024), suggesting a lesser impact on potential flooding from wind-driven waves or storm surge.
NOAA Flood Likelihood: NOAA forecasts a high flood likelihood with a probability of 10.8% and a distance to threshold of -0.55m, which is similar to the historical Category 4 event on 12/18/2024. This indicates that conditions are close to thresholds that have previously resulted in flooding.
Synthesis: While the tide height and NOAA's flood likelihood suggest a potential risk for flooding, the high barometric pressure and low wind speeds reduce the overall flood risk. Compared to historical events, the conditions align with a Category 3 flood potential—close to a flood event and worth monitoring but unlikely to cause significant flood damage.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT Minor coastal flooding possible. Elevated tide levels may affect shoreline and adjacent areas.
WHEN From 7:30 AM to 9:30 AM PST.
IMPACTS Possible minor flooding in low-lying coastal areas and waterfront facilities. Short-term water coverage on beaches and walkways.
Barometric Pressure: Barometric pressure remains very high at 1026.94 hPa, even higher than Day 1, indicating stable and calm atmospheric conditions, which diminishes the likelihood of severe weather-related flooding.
Tide Height: The anticipated tide height peaks at 20.74 ft at 9:06 AM, slightly higher than Day 1 and comparable to historical events categorized as Category 3 and approaching Category 4 levels.
Wind: Moderate wind speeds of 7-9 mph from the S to SSW directions are expected. While higher than Day 1, these speeds are still lower than those associated with significant flooding in historical events.
NOAA Flood Likelihood: NOAA indicates a high flood likelihood with a probability of 15.8% and a distance to threshold of -0.42m, which is higher than Day 1 and surpasses the likelihood during some historical Category 4 events.
Synthesis: Despite the increased NOAA flood likelihood, the very high barometric pressure and moderate wind speeds suggest that severe flooding is unlikely. Taking into account all factors and historical comparisons, the flood potential remains at Category 3—conditions are close to a flood event and should be monitored, but significant flood damage is not expected.
CATEGORY 2
WHAT No significant flooding expected. Coastal conditions are within normal parameters.
WHEN Not applicable.
IMPACTS No anticipated impacts. Regular coastal activities should proceed without interruption.
Barometric Pressure: The pressure is notably high at approximately 1030 hPa, higher than the previous days and significantly above pressures during any historical flood events, indicating very stable weather conditions.
Tide Height: The expected high tide reaches up to 20.685 ft at 9:42 AM, slightly lower than previous days and below the levels associated with past flooding events.
Wind: Moderate wind speeds between 7-10 mph coming from the North. This wind direction is less likely to contribute to coastal flooding compared to southerly winds in historical events.
NOAA Flood Likelihood: NOAA forecasts a high flood likelihood with a probability of 11.3% and a distance to threshold of -0.53m. While the likelihood is notable, the high barometric pressure and moderate wind conditions mitigate the risk.
Synthesis: Given the exceptionally high barometric pressure, slightly lower tide heights, and moderate wind speeds from a non-critical direction, the likelihood of flooding is minimal. Aligning with historical data and considering all factors, the flood potential is assessed as Category 2, indicating no risk of flooding.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Disclaimer: This assessment is based solely on the provided data, including weather forecasts, tide predictions, and NOAA's flood likelihood estimates. It does not account for hydrodynamic data or ground saturation levels. For comprehensive flood risk evaluations, please consult local authorities and experts.