Redondo Beach, WA
Below is an assessment for the next three days based on the provided tide heights, barometric pressure forecasts, wind conditions, and NOAA’s stated flood likelihood percentages. Although NOAA describes each day as having a “High” flood likelihood, the barometric pressure is significantly higher than in past severe flood events, reducing the potential severity. All three days fall into a “close to flood event” range, but major or damaging flooding is unlikely given the high pressure values and tides that remain below the more critical 21 ft threshold.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT
Minor coastal flooding is possible during the highest tides, especially in very low-lying areas. Overall, conditions are close to a flood event and should be monitored, but are unlikely to result in major damage.
WHEN
Greatest risk near high tide around 6:42 AM PST and again late afternoon/early evening around 5:36 PM PST.
IMPACTS
• Minor flooding of low-lying roads, parking areas, or beach-adjacent properties is possible.
• Any inundation is expected to be brief and localized.
• Tides peak near 20.58 ft. While comparable to certain past Category 3 events, the barometric pressure of roughly 1029–1031 hPa is much higher than in more serious floods, which reduces overall risk.
• NOAA’s Flood Likelihood for Jan 31 is 8.6%, with the water level about 0.61 m above the flood threshold, which historically aligns with Category 3 conditions.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT
Coastal flooding remains a possibility, particularly around the peak tidal cycles. Conditions again remain in a watchful state rather than a high-damage scenario.
WHEN
Greatest risk near the morning high tide around 7:12 AM PST and the late afternoon/evening high tide around 6:36 PM PST.
IMPACTS
• Low-lying and shoreline areas might experience brief shallow flooding.
• Road closures are not expected to be widespread, but caution is advised in areas prone to ponding.
• Tides approach 20.76 ft, still below the 21+ ft level historically associated with more significant flooding.
• Barometric pressure around 1026–1028 hPa remains high and thus mitigates severe impacts.
• NOAA’s Flood Likelihood for Feb 1 is 7.4%, which is slightly lower than Day 1 but still suggests a potential for minor flood impacts.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT
High tides and moderate onshore flow maintain a marginal flood concern in coastal areas. Monitor conditions closely if you reside in typically flood-prone zones.
WHEN
Highest concern is around 7:42 AM PST and again near 7:42 PM PST as tidal maxima occur.
IMPACTS
• Minor inundation of waterfront walkways, parking areas, or roads near the beach is possible.
• Flooding should remain localized and short-lived.
• Peak tides could reach about 20.80 ft. Although high, that is still below the more critical 21 ft mark.
• Barometric pressure forecast near 1025 hPa is still comfortably above the low-pressure thresholds that have accompanied more severe historic floods.
• NOAA’s Flood Likelihood for Feb 2 is 9.6%, slightly higher than the previous two days but not indicative of major flood damage under the current high-pressure conditions.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
• Categories 1-2: No risk of flooding.
• Category 3: Close to a flood event and worth monitoring.
• Category 4: Flooding is likely however, it is uncertain if this will cause major property damage.
• Category 5: Likely to flood and cause property damage.
• Categories 6-7: Extremely high risk of flooding and property damage.
This forecast is based solely on the barometric pressure readings, tide heights, wind information, and NOAA flood likelihood percentages you provided. Local conditions may vary. For final decision-making, consult local emergency management or weather authorities.