Redondo Beach, WA
CATEGORY 3
WHAT
High tide levels on May 17 are forecast to approach around 19.1 ft in the late evening, with barometric pressure readings near 1001–1003 hPa. These conditions place the area near a threshold for minor flooding. However, NOAA’s official flood likelihood remains at 0.0%, indicating that while water levels may come close to flood thresholds, significant or damaging flood impacts are not anticipated at this time.
WHEN
From roughly 8:00 PM to 10:00 PM PST, with the highest tide near 9:30–9:45 PM PST.
IMPACTS
• Minor water accumulation could affect very low-lying stretches of the shoreline.
• No substantial road closures or damage expected.
Barometric pressure is somewhat higher than in past severe events. For instance, Category 4 historical flooding often occurred with pressures closer to or below ~992 hPa. Since the current pressure is above 1000 hPa, it lessens the likelihood of a more serious event. Past Category 3 floods, such as on 01/06/2025, had comparable tide heights but notably higher barometric pressure. Overall, conditions align most closely with a Category 3 scenario—worth monitoring but unlikely to cause property damage.
CATEGORY 3
WHAT
Forecast data shows minor to moderate high tides pushing near or just below 19.1 ft again late in the evening on May 18, with barometric pressure hovering around 994–995 hPa. Although the pressure is lower than on Day 1, NOAA maintains a 0.0% flood likelihood, indicating only a small chance of minor coastal flooding.
WHEN
Peak tide heights are projected between 9:00 PM and 10:30 PM PST.
IMPACTS
• Areas with poor drainage or very close to the shoreline could see brief, shallow pooling.
• Widespread flooding is unlikely; infrastructure impacts are expected to be minimal.
Similar to Day 1, the tide height is on the higher side but remains below the more critical 20–21 ft levels historically associated with larger floods. Comparing with earlier Category 4 events (e.g., 01/07/2022, which had ~19.3 ft but even lower pressure ~992.8 hPa), this day’s data suggests we remain just short of a Category 4 threshold. Monitoring is advised, but major flood concerns are not expected.
CATEGORY 4
WHAT
On May 19, tides are again forecast near 19.1 ft, but this time the barometric pressure is significantly lower (near 990.5 hPa). Historically, tides around these levels combined with pressures below ~992 hPa have led to moderate flooding incidents (Category 4). While NOAA’s model still assigns a low flood likelihood percentage, the lower pressure elevates the overall risk above the prior two days.
WHEN
• Two high tides with notably low pressure readings are projected:
– Around midday (~1:00 PM PST)
– Late evening (~11:00 PM PST)
• Greatest threat timeframe is roughly 10:00 PM to midnight, coinciding with the day’s highest tide.
IMPACTS
• Potential for moderate flooding of low-lying coastal areas, beach parking lots, and some roadways immediately adjacent to the shoreline.
• Residents may see water encroachment in normally dry areas near the water’s edge.
• Major property damage is not widely expected, but localized problems are possible.
Comparisons to prior events show that tide levels around 19 ft seldom reach Category 5 unless accompanied by extremely low pressures (~978–980 hPa) and higher tides (21+ ft). However, the barometric pressure this day is among the lowest seen in recent data, which modestly raises the flood potential. While NOAA’s official percentage is still minimal, historical patterns point to a likelihood of at least some moderate flooding under these conditions.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
Categories 1-2: No risk of flooding.
Category 3: Close to a flood event and worth monitoring.
Category 4: Flooding is likely however, it is uncertain if this will cause major property damage.
Category 5: Likely to flood and cause property damage.
Categories 6-7: Extremely high risk of flooding and property damage.